IMO has defined a series of baselines for the amount of fuel that burns each type of vessel for a specified load capacity. Ships to be built in the future will have to exceed this baseline by a specified amount that will become more and more difficult over time. By 2025, all new ships will be 30% more energy efficient than those built in 2014. The “Phase 3” requirements have already been reviewed and strengthened as part of IMO`s first strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from ships. It also shows how inaccessible the International Maritime Organization is to the pace of the modern economy and the urgency of the climate crisis. It is almost as if such an glacial bureaucracy was deliberately designed to prevent relevant legislation on global shipping. Download the IMO repository for the Talanoa dialog box here. These include the full text of IMO`s initial strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from ships. Overall, this means that the IMO`s goal of “at least 50%” requires considerable hardening to be Paris compatible. Figure 5 shows the linear reductions for international shipping compatible with Paris at 1.5oC, with a central result of a necessary zero emission date of 2041 and a 47% reduction in emissions in 2020 to 2030, using an approach proportional to the current shareholding and the overall carbon budgets presented in Table 5.
A sensitivity test that gives international shipping a larger or lower share of the overall CO2 budget only slightly delays the zero emission date from 2041 to 2043 and 2039 respectively. For each vessel, a promised emission value is calculated by multiplying the residual life of each vessel by current annual emissions. The residual life of a vessel is calculated by subtracting the likely maturity age from its current age. For each vessel, its demolition age is estimated by taking the average age of tearing values for ships of its species and size, each year in Clarkson`s World Shipyard Monitor publications over the past 10 years and an average over those 10 years. In the coming years, a ship`s annual emissions are expected to be the same as in 2018. For more details on these assumptions, please see Additional Information and Sensitivity Analysis. Ship efficiency labels have been criticized for “greenwashing” because the labels only reveal the theoretical effectiveness of ships. The main driver of emissions is the way a ship is operated. New satellite sensors can easily detect the amount of emissions emitted, so the choice of an “efficiency certification” tool is widely considered a “greenwashing” when more efficient alternatives were available on the market to indicate the actual emissions of each ship. However, our higher emission level could be reduced by adopting policies or practices that mean that these sustainable assets consume less or less fuel in the future. First, the current target of the International Maritime Organizations (IMO) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% by 2050 must be significantly strengthened to be consistent with the Paris target of 1.5oC. Our research shows that meeting 1.5 carbon budget is expected to reduce the CO2 emissions of shipping to net zero by 2040.
Ships that were in service at the time of the letter at the beginning of 2020 will continue to represent the bulk of the fleet in 2030. To meet carbon budgets, the shipping industry will not only have to introduce new, very low-carbon fuels and new, very low-carbon vessels by 2030, but also take rapid actions such as operational efficiency and, in the 2020s, slower speeds to reduce emissions promised by the existing fleet.